How the COVID-19 Migration Affects Real Estate.
A migration from cities to the suburbs was already brewing in the months and years before COVID-19. Following the COVID-19 health crisis, the trend of people moving away from crowded cities into the more spacious suburbs is expected to continue.
After the quarantine and once states start to open back up, we expect to see the acceleration of this migration trend. This is the reason that Back To The Burbs was founded ( www.backtotheburbs.com).
Migration to large cities in the 21st-century was mainly driven by job opportunities. When more people flocked to cities such as San Francisco and New York City for jobs that provided tempting six figures salaries, the price of real estate shot up in these areas. Beyond work, the social aspects of living in the city were appealing to many people in the form of bars, restaurants, shopping, concerts, sports events, and other venues. However, the social reasons for being in the city have abruptly come to a standstill since the beginning of the global health crisis in the US.
"The two big danger zones in a contagion are elevators and mass transit. When you live in a high-density area, everywhere you go is crowded. Everywhere you go has a social distancing problem. New York City has 27,000 people per square mile versus the United States, in general, has 287 people per square mile."
says Jason Hartman in a recent interview.
During the shutdowns, many lives were forced to shift from in-person to online: relationships on dating apps, work meetings on Zoom, cooking lessons on lnstagram, homeschool for the kids, and binge-watching Netflix on the couch (admittedly we were doing this before the crisis).
The home, more than ever, became the center of the universe. Instead of looking for job opportunities in the chaos of the city, we can now open up our laptops from the comfort of our homes and tell ourselves we are now in the office. Now a reverse migration is set to occur into the suburbs.
A Lifestyle Shift
As the panic wore down, people began to question some of their lifestyle choices including where they live. For some time many people tolerated the "city life": high rents, traffic, stressful work environments, noise, pollution, mass transit commutes, and a fast pace. Fast forward to March 2020 and all of that has come to a halt with the spreading of COVID-19. The city is not where many people want to live anymore.
Rural Real Estate Demand
The real estate market in many ways has been put on pause during the early months of COVID-
19. However, people were still doing home searches as the real estate industry shifted online. Redfin CEO, Glen Kelmen, noted an increase in rural home demand as people look to get away from the city. Kelmen called it "a profound, psychological change among consumers who are looking for houses."
Whether the online activity will translate to inbound migration to rural areas is yet to be seen. However, it suggests an increased desire for life away from densely populated urban areas like New York. While most people wouldn't trade their city lives for isolation in the mountains or on an island, many would consider living in the suburbs.
